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Russia’s Revenue from Energy Exports Projected to Surge to $321B in 2022, Fuel Record Current-Account Surplus

By Craig Bannister | April 20, 2022 | 3:21pm EDT
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Russia’s energy export revenue in 2022 is expected to increase by more than a third from 2021 and drive the country’s account-balance surplus to a record high, recent reports reveal.

Sanctions imposed by countries opposing the invasion of Ukraine haven’t dampened the performance of, and outlook, for Russia’s energy export revenue and current-account, Bloomberg reports:

“For all the hardships visited on consumers at home and the financial chokehold put on the government from abroad, Bloomberg Economics expects Russia will earn nearly $321 billion from energy exports this year, an increase of more than a third from 2021. It’s also on track for a record current-account surplus that the Institute of International Finance says may reach as high as $240 billion.”

Sales of oil to China and India have remained strong, and European countries have continued to purchase natural gas from Russia, OilPrice.com reports:

“Despite the widespread global condemnation of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Russia continued to sell its oil and gas to its key export markets in the first quarter. Asian buyers China and India continued buying Russian oil at hefty discounts, while Europe continued buying natural gas. Europe also continued buying Russian oil for most of Q1, although many European majors said in early March that they would not trade with spot Russian crude and oil products after the invasion of Ukraine.  

“Russia expects to earn additional oil and gas revenues equivalent to $9.6 billion (798.4 billion Russian rubles) this month, its finance ministry said last week.”

Russia’s current-account surplus more than doubled in the first quarter of 2022, hitting the highest level in decades, Bloomberg reports:

“Russia reported the largest current-account surplus since at least 1994, as revenues from oil and gas exports surged and imports plunged after the U.S. and its allies imposed sanctions over President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.

“The current account, the broadest measure of trade in goods and services, reached a surplus of $58.2 billion in the first quarter, more than 2.5 times the $22.5 billion reported a year earlier, the Bank of Russia said Monday.”

When a country extends, in total, more credit to other countries than the total they extend to it, it has an current-account surplus, Investopedia explains:

“A surplus is indicative of an economy that is a net creditor to the rest of the world. This means the country is likely providing an abundance of resources to other economies and is owed money in return. By providing these resources abroad, a country with a CAB surplus gives other economies the chance to increase their productivity while running a deficit. This is referred to as financing a deficit.”

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