Commentary

Why Climate Doomsday Won’t Happen This Summer

Vijay Jayaraj
By Vijay Jayaraj | June 7, 2018 | 11:43 AM EDT

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As we head into another summer, the clarion call for climate action from environmentalists is expected to grow louder. But are we really at the tipping point of a global climate catastrophe?

Not all environmentalists are worried about the climate doomsday. In fact, even amongst the climate scientists, there is no clear consensus regarding the possibility of a climate state that would cause global catastrophe.

Nevertheless, the mainstream media have been pushing the climate agenda on full throttle. Here are four reasons why the climate doomsday won’t happen this summer:

1. The World just experienced one of its coldest recorded winters in history. Let the snow thaw!

We are almost into summer, and it is not easy to forget the record winter this year, which sent the temperatures plummeting below normal in many parts of the Northern Hemisphere.

Cities like New York registered record snowfall (its highest in 130 years) and cities across the U.S. and Canada broke 80-year old record-lows. The UK experienced snowy conditions well into spring, and Japan continues to display record monthly lows.

The case is similar in other parts of the world as well. I am writing this article from an obscure village in southern India, where the rains have been ample this year. The major rainfall patterns are forecasted to be normal, and there is no drought-based threat to the ecosystem and the economy.

Contrary to the populist climate agenda, the temperatures in the country hovered around the average mark. For example, the city of Chennai (formerly known as Madras), famous for its extremely hot and sultry summer weather, recorded below-normal temperatures this May. This was expected, as the city, which is home to nearly 10 million people, had one of its coldest winters in recent decades.

While it is easy for the climate alarmists to dismiss these as short-term regional changes in weather, they remain a contradiction to their claims of above-normal temperatures and exaggerated warming rates.

It is important to note that a cold winter does not guarantee a mild summer, but it does remind us that the global temperatures are not increasing as wildly as how it is preached in our newspapers and online media.

2. Global average temperature is rising, but not anywhere close to the rate claimed by the climate alarmists.

Climate scientists have testified to the U.S. House Committee on Science, Space & Technology multiple times about the most important error in the predictions and forecast of computer climate models used by the climate alarmists. These are the same forecasts that are currently used by policymakers in international governance institutions like the United Nations and the governments of the world.

The glaring errors in these forecasts became evident when climatologist John Christie revealed how the actual temperatures from the past 18 years varied drastically from those forecast by the models. While the rate of increase in global temperature was minimal and almost insignificant, the models had incorrectly projected a sharp increase for the same period.

Climatologists and proponents of climate alarmism acknowledged that these discrepancies in model forecasts were due to an erroneous assumption that singled out carbon dioxide emission as the primary driver of global temperature levels in the post-industrial era.

The models are programmed to reflect this incorrect assumption and hence the wrong forecasts.

In India, for example, maximum average temperature in the year 1902 was 29.22 degrees Celsius, and the same in 2014 was only 29.72 degrees Celsius. Half a degree in 112 years, despite an exponential increase in carbon dioxide emissions, is a warming rate about one-seventh of that simulated by the computer models. In fact, it’s pretty insignificant. And it’s a reminder that …

 

3. CO2 emissions are the not the primary driver of global temperature.

In the past 20 years, the increase in carbon dioxide emissions failed to produce an increase in temperature that corresponds well to the computer models’ projections. In fact, the last two decades constituted the highest increase in carbon dioxide in recent times. Yet, during the same period, the rate of increase in global temperatures was lower than that in the previous decades.

Rising carbon dioxide failed not only to increase global temperature to predicted levels but also to meet the observed rate of increase prior to 1999.

This mismatch between carbon dioxide levels and temperature increase is not a new phenomenon. Historical data, too, reveal that carbon dioxide is not the primary driver of global temperature.

4. The Arctic and Antarctic ice masses are stable (and polar bears are healthy).

The first thing to strike our mind about climate change is polar bears. The “photogenic megafauna” of climate alarmism the image of a polar bear stranded on a tiny piece of ice.

The image might draw empathy, but it is far from truth. It is instead a deliberate attempt to trick the larger public into believing that the poles are melting at an unprecedented rate.

The alarmists have been promoting Arctic melting because the Antarctic has been on an ice mass gaining spree and won’t fit their narrative of a warming world.

But they seldom realize that the Artic is stable too.

Current Arctic sea ice volume has exceeded that of 2014 and is now at a five-year high. In Greenland (the only permanent ice sheet outside Antarctica), the ice sheet has gained 600 gigatons since September 2017, which is 30 gigatons above the 1981–2010 average. If we are to consider a longer period (thousands of years), the Arctic is more healthy than ever (if we assume that Arctic cold is equal to health).

The same has been true outside the poles too. Karakoram, the most heavily glaciated part of the world outside the polar regions, located close to the Himalayas, has been unaffected by the climatic changes and remains stable.

And the polar bears are enjoying this. The most recent studies indicate that their populations are stable. The cuddly looking but ferocious bears were simply hijacked by climate alarmists to suit their narrative.

The stable polar regions also mean that there won’t be any drastic increase in global sea level due to the warming of the earth.

Since 2015, there have been hundreds of peer-reviewed journals that assert nothing unusual is happening with our climate system.

These are just four reasons why the climate doomsday will not happen in the near future, and we would need more faith to believe that it would happen at all.

So here’s the recommendation for this Summer: Popsicles, yes! Climate fear, no!

Vijay Jayaraj (M.Sc., Environmental Science, University of East Anglia, England), Research Associate for Developing Countries for the Cornwall Alliance for the Stewardship of Creation, lives in Coimbatore, India.

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