Commentary

China Has Far More to Lose in Trade Battle Than We Do

Dan Celia
By Dan Celia | June 21, 2018 | 3:52 PM EDT

Chinese President Xi Jinping and his wife Peng Liyuan (left) and U.S. President Donald J. Trump and his wife Melania Trump (right) (Screenshot)

Even though “trade wars” talk is virtually everywhere, it may be a misnomer.

I don’t know if there is a trade war but there certainly is a “trade battle” going on between China and America.

 I suspect these trade battles will continue, although it’s been relatively quiet. There is no doubt, when we look at the analytics, that China has far more to lose than we do. It’s possible China could be on the brink of a recession, and this could be the very thing that could push them over the edge. This is a concern for global economies everywhere, and the last thing the global economy needs is an Asia that is slipping into dangerous territory. I would suspect that by this week, or certainly by the beginning of next week, there will be more productive conversations in and around trade with China.

Of course, another concern for our country is oil, especially as the OPEC summit begins. This will be an interesting meeting, certainly for Saudi Arabia and others who attend. This is a 14-nation cartel, so the U.S. must pick up production. We are losing at least 1.5 million barrels a day just between Venezuela, Iran and now Libya on strike—dropping another 500 thousand barrels of oil a day. Capacity will certainly increase. And frankly, I believe the global economy needs that increase. I think that oil has finally come into balance, and the demand side is a bit greater than anyone had expected. Watch this OPEC meeting closely—we will be, and we’ll see what comes of it, and, of course, how it will impact us at the pumps and in our economy.

Dan Celia is president and CEO of Financial Issues Stewardship Ministries, Inc., and host of the nationally syndicated radio and television program “Financial Issues,” heard daily on more than 650 stations across the country and reaching millions of households on the National Religious Broadcasters Network, BizTV, Dove-TV and others. Visit www.financialissues.org.

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