Trafalgar Poll: Trump Slightly Ahead of Biden in Ohio and Pennsylvania

By Michael W. Chapman | October 28, 2020 | 10:24am EDT
(Getty Images)
(Getty Images)

(CNS News) -- The Trafalagar Group polling firm, the only pollster to accurately foresee a Donald Trump win in Michigan in 2016, and one of the few groups to forecast a Trump win in Pennsylvania in 2016, currently places Trump ahead of Joe Biden North Carolina, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.

In the Pennsylvania poll, conducted Oct. 24-25, Trafalgar asked 1,076 likely voters, "If the election or president were held today, how would you vote?"

(Trafalgar Group)
(Trafalgar Group)

In response, 46.7% of likely voters in Pennsylvania said they would vote for Trump; 45.8% said they would vote for Joe Biden -- roughly 1% difference between the two candidates. 

In North Carolina, the same question was asked (Oct. 20-22) of 1,098 likely voters. 

(Trafalgar Group)
(Trafalgar Group)

In response, 48.6% of those polled said they would vote for Trump; 46.8% said they would vote for Biden. That's roughly a 2% difference between the two candidates.

In Ohio, Trafalgar asked the same question of 1,035 likely voters (Oct. 1-3).

(Trafalgar Group)
(Trafalgar Group)

In response, 47.6% said they would vote for Trump and 43.9% said they would vote for Biden. That's almost a 4% difference in Trump's favor. 

As reported in National Review, the head of the Trafalgar Group, Robert Cahaly, thinks Trump will win Michigan and Pennsylvania and "be reelected with roughly 280 electoral votes."

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