(CNSNews.com) - Civilians ran a greater risk of being killed in the border city of Juarez, Mexico, last year than in Baghdad, Iraq.
The per capita rate of civilian killings in the Mexican border city in 2008 was nearly three-and-a-half times (3.4) as great as the per capita rate of civilian killings in the Iraqi province of Baghdad, CNSNews.com has determined, based on State Department statistics and data supplied by an Iraqi civilian-casualty database recommended by the Department of Defense.
In Ciudad Juarez, where drug cartels are fighting with Mexican authorities for control of the city, an estimated 1,800 people were killed in 2008, according to the U.S. State Department.
That equaled one in every 889 residents in a population that the State Department says 1.6 million.
Meanwhile, in the Baghdad Governorate (the Iraqi province that includes Baghdad), only about one in 3,040 people were killed in 2008, using the civilian casualty figures gatherd by the Iraq Body Count (IBC) project.
The overall number of civilians in Baghdad Governorate that were killed in 2008, according to IBC, was between 2,632 and 2,847.
But the Baghdad Governorate, with an estimated 6 to 8 million people, is almost four to five times larger in population than Ciudad Juarez, depending upon which figure is utilized.
That means people are at greater risk in Juarez than in Baghdad province.
In fact, CNSNews.com has calculated that approximately 113 per 100,000 people were killed by violence in Juarez, while in Baghdad about 33 per 100,000 civilians shared the same fate.
A reasonable analysis
Statistics on the number of deaths from violence in Juarez were taken from the U.S. State Department’s travel alert, issued Feb. 20.
Calculating the population and death rates of Iraq, however, was not a simple proposition.
IBC, which compiles data from English-language news outlets (including Arabic media translated into English), NGO-based reports and other official records that can be found in the public domain, provided the civilian death-toll for Baghdad.
John Sloboda, IBC’s co-founder, told CNSNews.com that the uncertainty in the estimated number of civilian casualties in Baghdad Governorate in 2008 (2,632 to 2,847) results from “inconsistencies in reporting.”
The group’s post-surge violence analysis, estimates that 32 percent of the 8,315 to 9,028 total civilian casualties in Iraq since the beginning of the surge have taken place in the Baghdad Governorate, which contains the city of Baghdad.
“Each IBC incident is coded for location,” Sloboda said. “In this case, we calculated the percentage of deaths reported in the province of Baghdad, which includes the city and immediately surrounding areas.”
Another problem with the calculation was that Iraq has not conducted a national population census since1987. Currently, there are only estimates of the country’s overall population, and few describe population by region.
The best estimate of Baghdad’s population--between 6 and 8 million inhabitants in the province of Baghdad--comes from the Institute for the Study of War [ISW], a Washington, D.C.-based nonprofit think-tank.
ISW’s population estimate reflects Iraq's “2003 Official Census by Ministries of Trade and Planning for the Food Coupon Distribution for the United Nations Oil-for-Food Program,” which placed the province of Baghdad’s population at approximately 6.4 million in 2003, according to David Phillips, the institute’s spokesman.
CNSNews.com calculated the province of Baghdad’s death-rate in several different fashions.
Utilizing the highest estimated population (8 million), and applying it to the lowest number of civilian deaths for 2008 (2,632), yielded the lowest per capita death-rate for the Baghdad Governorate--1 in 3,040, or approximately 0.033 percent of the population.
If the Baghdad Governorate population for 2008 was at the lowest end of the estimate range (6 million) and the number of people who died was 2,632, then the per capita death rate in 2008 would drop to one in 2,280, or approximately 0.044 percent of the population.
Using the 6 million figure, but applying it to the high end of the casualty estimate (2,847 killed civilians), yields a per capita death rate of one in 2,107, or an estimated 0.047 percent of the region’s population.
In addition, if the Baghdad population was 8 million and the number of civilians who were killed was 2,847 then, one in 2,810, or about 0.036 percent of the population, was murdered in 2008.
Under any formulation, a resident of Juarez was significantly more likely to be killed from violence than a resident in Baghdad province in 2008.
The civilian deaths in Baghdad, by the way, are attributed to coalition and insurgent military action, sectarian violence and criminal violence in Iraq, according to IBC.
There were fewer obstacles in determining the population count of Juarez.
The State Department, in its Travel Alert, estimated Ciudad Juarez population at 1.6 million, which is the number that CNSNews.com used.
That figure is close to the 2005 population count of approximately 1.3 million provided by the Mexican government’s Sistema Nacional de Informacion Estadistica y Geografica, or National Statistics and Geographic Information System.
Some of the same causes of violent death in Baghdad, meanwhile, can be attributed to deaths in Juarez.
“Some recent Mexican army and police confrontations with drug cartels have resembled small-unit combat, with cartels employing automatic weapons and grenades,” the State Department pointed in its Travel Alert.
“Large firefights have taken place in many towns and cities across Mexico but most recently in northern Mexico, including Tijuana, Chihuahua City and Ciudad Juarez,” State added.
Juarez has also been subject to “public shootouts during daylight hours in shopping centers and other public venue,” the travel alert noted.
NOTES ON STATISTICS AND METHODOLOGY:
Here are the statistics CNSNews.com relied upon and how they were determined:
--Population of Ciudad Juarez (from State Department Travel Alert, Feb. 20, 2009): 1.6 million
-- Population of Ciudad Juarez (from 2005 Mexican Govt. Census : 1.3 million
http://www.inegi.org.mx/lib/olap/general_ver4/MDXQueryDatos.asp?#Regreso&c=10401)
--Population of Baghdad Governorate (from Institute of the Study of War 2008 estimate): between 6 and 8 million
-- Population of Baghdad Governorate (from U.N. figures for 2003): 6,386,067
-- 2008 Civilian Deaths in Baghdad Governorate (from Iraq Body Count project) – 2,632 to 2,847
-- Number of people killed in Juarez in 2008 (from State Department Travel Alert, Feb. 20 2009) – 1,800
Juarez:
-- Number of people killed from violence: 1,800
-- Total Population of city (estimate) – 1.6 million
Baghdad:
-- Number of people killed from violence: 2,632 to 2,847
-- Total population of province (the bulk from the city of Baghdad): 6 to 8 million
Calculations:
Deaths from violence divided by total population = rate of civilians killed from violence
2,632/6 million = 0.044 percent, or 44 per 100,000 civilians were killed in Baghdad
2,847/6 million = 0.047 percent or 47 per 100,000 civilians were killed in Baghdad
2,632/8 million = 0.033 percent, or 33 per 100,000 civilians were killed in Baghdad
2,847/8 million = 0.036 percent, or 36 per 100,000 civilians were killed in Baghdad
2,632/7 million = 0.038 percent, or 38 per 100,000 civilians were killed in Baghdad
2,847/7 million = 0.041 percent, or 41 per 100,000 civilians were killed in Baghdad
1,800/1.6 million = 0.11 percent, or 113 per 100,000 people were killed in Juarez
Total Population divided by people killed = per capita approximation
6 million /2,632 = 1 in 2,280 people killed in Baghdad
6 million/2,847 = 1 in 2,107 people killed in Baghdad
7 million/ 2,632 = 1 in 2,660 people killed in Baghdad
7 million/2,847 = 1 in 2,460 people killed in Baghdad
8 million/ 2632 = 1 in 3,040 people killed in Baghdad
8 million/ 2847 = 1 in 2,810 people killed in Baghdad
1.6 million/ 1800 = 1 in 890 people killed in Juarez