UMass Poll Gives NH Primary to McCain and Bradley

By Jerry Miller | July 7, 2008 | 8:25 PM EDT

Amherst, MA ( - A University of Massachusetts poll shows Arizona Senator John McCain and former New Jersey Senator Bill Bradley as the likely winners of the New Hampshire Primary to be held on February 1st.

The survey shows McCain beating Texas Governor George W Bush by a margin of 37 to 29 percent, with publisher Steve Forbes a distant third at 14 percent. Bringing up the rear are Alan Keyes at seven percent and Gary Bauer and Utah Senator Orrin Hatch at one percent each.

In the Democratic race, Bradley beats Vice President Al Gore by a margin of 47 percent to 37 percent.

The survey, conducted January 14th through 16th, polled 400 likely voters in each party and has a margin of error of five points.

Most importantly, Bradley and McCain do very well among the state's Independent voters. Among those likely to vote in the Republican Primary, McCain beats Bush 60 percent to 30 percent. Independents expected to vote in the Democratic Primary favor Bradley over Gore, by a margin of 50 to 28 percent.

Younger voters also favor Bradley by a wide margin. In the 18-to-35-year-old age group, Bradley trounces Gore by a margin of 58 to 31 percent. However, the same group favors Bush over McCain by a margin of 35 to 31 percent, a statistical dead heat given the margin of error.