Forecast Calls for US Dominance, European Disintegration

By Susan Jones | July 7, 2008 | 8:22 PM EDT

( - Stratfor, a private intelligence and security consulting organization, has released a 10-year geopolitical forecast predicting the decline of China and Russia, the rise of Japan, the disintegration of the European Union and the continued dominance of the United States.

Stratfor said its forecast, released Monday, is based on its ongoing analysis of security, political, demographic, and other major trends in all key regions of the world.

The forecast is intended to help its clients (including corporations, governments, and financial institutions) form long-range strategic plan by "identifying potential risks and opportunities."

According to the 2005-2015 forecast, the United States will continue to dominate the next decade both economically and militarily; and the U.S. is "positioned to replicate the investment boom of the 1995- 2005 decade."

The forecast also says the U.S. gradually will shift its strategic focus from the Middle East to the Pacific basin. Stratfor predict the U.S. will triumph over the "jihadist" insurgents; and it predicts "major leadership transitions" in Egypt, Syria and Saudi Arabia.

The forecast also says Europe's political union will collapse but its economic union will endure. Tensions will increase over Muslim immigration to European nations, the analysis said. And it said Russian attempts to expand could present new problems.

Russia is collapsing and will become increasingly nationalist and anti-Western, Stratfor said in a "highlights" press release.

China's economic growth will slow down, the analysis predicted, leading to a "flight of investment." Moreover, China will experience "social upheavals" because of the gulf between rich and poor.

Japan will succeed China as the principal Asian power, and Taiwan will align itself with Japan, the forecast said.

Stratfor, based in Austin, Texas, said it draws on a global network of intelligence sources in formulated its global analyses.

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