(CNSNews.com) – Pakistan has long featured on security analysts’ shortlists of the world’s hotspots, but a comprehensive new survey of young Pakistanis’ attitudes signals that the situation could get significantly worse in the coming years.
 
Three-quarters of the 18-29 year olds surveyed for The British Council said they regard themselves as Muslims first and Pakistanis second, while one-third supported Islamic law (shari’a) and half expressed confidence in religious-based education, as provided by Islamic schools or madrassas.
 
The survey found strong views about Western policies in the region and what many respondents regard as interference in Pakistan. Thirty percent blamed “injustice” for the violence in the country, while 28 percent cited poor economic conditions.
 
A leading Pakistani analyst on Tuesday attributed the increase in “religiosity” to a range of factors, including unhappiness with U.S. policies in the Middle East and the perception that Muslims have been targeted since 2001.
 
Described by Pakistan’s Dawn newspaper as “perhaps the first truly representative survey and report of its kind in the country,” the survey also identified high levels of cynicism and disillusionment among young Pakistanis, with only 15 percent saying Pakistan is headed in the right direction.
 
Twice as many respondents expressed faith in the military rather than in democratic institutions, including national and provincial governments and the courts. Only 39 percent said they voted in the last election, and half are not even registered to vote.
 
Compounding concerns about these views is the sheer size of Pakistan’s young population, as well as the country’s projected growth in the decades ahead.
 
Today, half of Pakistan’s 180 million people are under 20, and two-thirds are under 30. By 2050, Pakistan is expected to have a population of 335 million (the U.N. Population Division’s high variant projection puts it at 380.8 million).

(By comparison, the U.S. Census Bureau’s mid-range projection has the U.S. population, around 308 million today, rising to 392 million by 2050. While the difference in size between the populations of the U.S. and Pakistan is 128 million today, by the middle of the century it will have dropped to just 57 million.)
 
The British Council, a 75 year-old, partially government-funded cultural relations body, warned that unless “decisive action” is taken “to place Pakistan back on a path towards a stable and prosperous future … the consequences will be frightening.”
 
The report’s socio-economic findings are sobering: Only half of Pakistan’s children attend primary school, one quarter go to secondary school and just five percent receive higher education.
 
A quarter of those surveyed were illiterate, half said they did not believe they have skills required in the modern labor market, and those with skills reported difficulties in finding jobs.
 
“Pakistan risks falling prey to a worsening cycle of poverty, polarization and conflict, at a time when the population continues to increase rapidly and growing numbers of Pakistanis hunger for a better life,” the report said.

The British Council quoted David Steven, an academic involved in writing the report, as saying the high proportion of the population that is young presented a great opportunity if the potential of the young generation can be harnessed – but disaster if they are poorly educated and fail to get jobs.
 
‘Refuge in religion’
 
Invited to comment on some of the report’s findings, Imtiaz Gul, head of Pakistan’s independent Centre for Research and Security Studies (CRSS), said from Islamabad Tuesday a number of factors at home and abroad had “triggered a new wave of religiosity – the quest for identity and justice.”
 
Gul said factors outside the country included the invasion of Iraq, the presence of U.S.-led NATO troops in Afghanistan, the Palestinian issue and “the overbearing U.S. tilt in favor of Israel,” he said.
 
“Most people see the Muslims as being on the receiving end [of these policies], particularly since December 2001. That is why the identification as being Muslim first and Pakistani later is stronger than ever before.”
 
Among contributory factors inside Pakistan were disenchantment with mainstream politicians, absence of good governance, and political turmoil and “disharmony.”
 
“In this context most people – young or older – tend to view the military as the ‘deliverer,’” he said.
 
“Frustration with political institutions prompts them to look up to the most organized institution of the army, realizing little that the army has its limitations as far as governance and democratic development goes.”
 
Gul said Pakistanis needed the confidence that comes from good government, delivery of justice and improvement in services. Those who did not feel safe and secure and did not trust their leaders “would tend to look for alternatives and will be prone to taking refuge in religion.”
 
Uncompetitive, corrupt
 
Pakistan is the world’s sixth most populous nation, after China, India, the United States, Indonesia and Brazil.
 
Two other recent reports highlight the predicament facing Pakistan, especially when compared to other populous countries.
 
The World Economic Forum’s latest global competitive index, released in September, put Pakistan at 101st place out of the 133 countries surveyed – down from 92nd place in 2007. The report identified government instability, policy instability and corruption as “the most problematic factors for doing business” in Pakistan.
 
By comparison, China was placed 29th in the WEF report, India 49th, the United States 2nd, Indonesia 54th and Brazil 56th.   
 
In Transparency International’s annual report on the perceived level of corruption, published last week, Pakistan dropped five places and is now at number 139 out of 180 countries tracked.
 
Rated between zero (not corrupt) and five (most corrupt), Pakistan scored an average of 3.6, with the most corrupt sector or institution found to be public officials (4.1), followed by judiciary (3.8), parliament (3.7) and political parties (3.5).
 
By comparison, China was placed 79th in the corruption report, India 84th, the United States 19th, Indonesia 111th and Brazil 75th (see graphs for WEF and Transparency International comparisons for the six biggest countries).