At 54 Percent of Likely Voters, Conservatives Now Outnumber Liberals, Moderates—and Republicans
Based on polling conducted Sept. 23 to Oct. 3, Gallup now estimates that 54 percent of “likely voters” for the Nov. 2 election are self-professed conservatives.
If Gallup’s estimate holds up, self-professed conservative voters in this year’s midterm congressional election will outnumber self-professed liberals (18 percent of Gallup’s “likely voter” pool) by 3-to-1, and self-professed moderates (27 percent of Gallup’s “likely voter” pool) by 2-to-1.
The 54 percent of likely voters who Gallup says are conservatives also out-number the Republicans, whom Gallup estimates make up 39 percent of likely voters.
Independents, according to Gallup, account for 31 percent of likely voters, while Democrats account for 30 percent.
In the previous four midterm elections, according to Gallup, conservatives have never been a majority of the likely voters.
In 1994, when Republicans won a majority of both houses of Congress for the first time in more than four decades, conservatives and Republicans were more evenly matched among likely voters than they are now, according to Gallup. That year, conservatives were 40 percent of likely voters and Republicans were 38 percent. Self-described moderates, meanwhile, were 48 percent of likely voters in 1994, thus outnumbering both conservatives and Republicans in that election.
Democrats were 33 percent of likely voters in 1994, according to Gallup compared to 30 percent this year.
In the 1998 midterm election, conservatives were 46 percent of likely voters; in 2002, they were 42 percent; and in 2006, they were 42 percent, according to Gallup.
Self-described "moderates" have declined dramatically among "likely voters" since the 1994 election, according to Gallup. In that year, moderates were 48 percent of likely voters compared to the 27 percent Gallup estimates today.