We are talking about a Super Bowl-size audience as more people than ever turned to the Vice Presidential debate last Thursday. Who won? It apparently depends upon who was asked and how the question was phrased.
 
CBS and CNN both had overnight polls claiming that Sen. Joe Biden, D-Del., won by a landslide. But pollster Frank Luntz assembled a large group in St. Louis, about half of whom had voted for President George W. Bush and the other half had voted for Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., in 2004. That group overwhelmingly felt that Gov. Sarah Palin, R-Alaska, had won the debate. These were all undecided voters and a number of them said they were now inclined toward the McCain-Palin ticket on account of her performance.
 
While that debate drew an unprecedented audience, it is doubtful that many voters will cast their vote for president based upon their evaluation of Vice Presidential candidates. One thing which may help Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., is that 55 percent in the CBS Poll believe that Governor Palin is qualified to be President, should that become necessary. The percentage had been much lower in a previous CBS poll.
 
There is now less than a month before voters cast their ballots. Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., has a significant lead at this point. In fact, no presidential candidate equally far behind as Sen. McCain is has won the presidency. Sen. Obama, upon that basis, should be breaking out the champagne. But Obama is not, in light of the “Bradley Factor.”
 
The “Bradley Factor” refers to the California gubernatorial campaign in which Los Angles Mayor Tom Bradley polled far ahead of the state’s Attorney General George Deukmejian. However, when the votes were counted Mayor Bradley was defeated by 50,000 votes. Respondents to the polling firms wanted to be politically correct by saying that Bradley was their candidate but when they got into the privacy of the voting booth they voted the other way. Sen. Obama worries about the Bradley Factor because in several primary contests he over-polled the actual result.
 
It may not be only the Bradley Factor which has caused the Obama camp to pause. Former Clinton advisor and columnist Dick Morris believes that Sen. Obama has peaked too soon. He has forecast that Sen. Obama’s support will begin to decline in another week and that by election day the race will be dead even again. Of course, Morris is not always correct in his analysis. He thought Sen. McCain’s move to suspend his campaign in order to work on the bailout was “brilliant.” It turned out the public viewed this as somewhat of a gimmick. Sen. McCain’s support declined each day from the time he suspended his campaign.
 
University of Virginia political guru professor Larry Sabato said normally Sen. Obama could expect to be elected given the current circumstances but given this volatile year any day could produce a game changer, so voters should not yet draw any conclusion.
 
Fourteen percent of the electorate is said to be undecided. Should that group break strongly toward one candidate or the other it could produce a landslide for Sen. Obama or a very close election with Sen. McCain having a slight edge. And then there are the congressional elections. Voter outrage may continue through Nov. 4. If so, how would it translate in the elections? Would voters turn out of office those who supported the bailout? That is unclear. Or could voters resent those who voted “no” on the ground that something had to be done and they rejected the opportunity?
 
Before all this turmoil I had suggested that we might have some surprises Election Day. It is impossible to know how exactly the outrage on the part of the electorate will translate into votes. We do know that the Democrats have a superior ground game (voter ID and turnout) just as the Republicans had a superior ground game in 2004 which resulted in that party gaining four senate seats. Now on paper the Democrats appear to gain a minimum of five senate seats. That is unless voter outrage changes that outlook.
 
Pack a good picnic brunch and prepare for an all-night marathon election night and the morning after. Unless we have a landslide in the making we are likely to have a marathon election with many confusing results. Why not? Think of what already has happened this year.