Things change so rapidly, unexpectedly and violently in this volatile part of the world that trying to predict what's going to happen next week, much less next year, can be dicey and deadly.
However there is one thing that is certain, no matter what Iran is telling the nuclear inspectors, they are developing a nuclear weapon and already have a delivery system capable of hitting Tel Aviv and the areas where the majority of Israelis live.
One thing became clear during my recent trip to the Holy Land.
The Jews - regardless of what they claim their official position is - have basically given up on President Obama doing anything meaningful to keep this from happening and have pretty much decided that any preventive action taken against Iran will have to be initiated and implemented by the state of Israel, without help or approval from the rest of the world.
This is pretty strange, in that, no sane government, or person for that matter, wants to see Iran become a nuclear power, the scenario is nightmarish with spin offs like al-Qaeda and all the other anti western Islamic fanatics also obtaining nuclear capabilities.
Nobody wants to see a nuclear armed Iran but nobody has the cajones to stand with Israel in preventing it, including the current resident of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, whose prestige in the Middle East falls somewhere between microscopic and non-existent. He is viewed as a gutless blowhard whose word is worth about as much as a confederate five-dollar bill.
So the world may as well get used to the fact that one morning we're going to wake up to the news that Israel has bombed Iran, accompanied by all the usual lies and hyperbole about civilian body counts and the destruction of harmless schools and hospitals that will go along with it.
I, for one, believe that this will happen in the relatively near future and have always felt that when it did happen the Middle East would explode with all Islamic countries throwing everything they had at Israel in a concerted attempt to wipe them off the face of the earth.
But due to some off the record conversations with people whose opinion I value I have had to rethink my position on the subject. There would definitely be ramifications but likely by small rogue elements and fringe groups.
There is an informed school of thought in Israel that the majority of the Middle Eastern governments in the neighborhood are as afraid of Iran as Israel is and that they would applaud the removal of Iran's nuclear capabilities.
Of course they'd never admit it in public but in back channel conversations and private overtures major Islamic countries have expressed their fears, and although they would roundly condemn Israel in the United Nations and the world media, they would secretly breath a sigh of relief if Israel is successful in destroying Iran's nuclear capabilities.
All Islamists are not fire breathing, hair trigger radicals who want their sons to die in a suicide bombing or on the field of battle for the greater glory of some fanatic. There are those who, like us, simply want to live out their lives in peace, raise their families and make a better world for their children.
Unfortunately those Muslims are not the ones with the guns and we have to deal with the reality of the situation.
Or at least Israel is going to.
What do you think?
Pray for our troops and the peace of Jerusalem.
God Bless America