'Romney Shares' Surge 122% To Hit New High On Intrade Market

Gregory Gwyn-Williams, Jr.
By Gregory Gwyn-Williams, Jr. | October 24, 2012 | 9:20 AM EDT

The price of "Mitt Romney" shares has surged over the last month from approximately $2.18 to a new high of $4.85, according to the prediction platform, Intrade.  This represents a 122% increase in the value of the shares since September 30th.

Intrade describes itself as "a platform where you make predictions by buying and selling shares on the outcome of real-world events. These events are always defined on Intrade as a YES/NO proposition."

In layman's terms, the Intrade website allows clients to wager real money on the probability of events occurring or not occurring ("Yes," it will happen, or "No" it won't).  Clients can buy and sell shares on the Intrade platform just as investors would buy and sell stocks in the financial markets.

One of the "Real-World Events" featured on the Intrade platform is "Mitt Romney to be re-elected President in 2012."  The "BUY" price for this event at the time of this post was $4.42 per share. That means that an Intrade client could buy one share for $4.42 to bet on Mitt Romney winning the presidential election in November.

"Romney" shares on Intrade

A chart that tracks the fluctuations in price for the Mitt Romney shares shows that between Sept. 30 and Oct. 24, more clients have been buying shares than selling them. The Romney shares had previously peaked on August 30 of this year when the share price reached $4.50.  Today, the shares surged to a new all-time high to $4.85 and are now hovering around $4.42.

The Intrade website explains:

When the outcome of an event is known, the market is settled. The market will always be settled at either $0.00 or $10.00 according to the actual real-life outcome:

  • YES, the market event has happened - the market will be settled at $10.00
  • NO, the market event has not happened - the market will be settled at $0.00

Simply put, if an Intrade client bets on Mitt Romney winning the election by buying a share today at the current market price of $4.42, the client will earn the difference between the settlement price ($10.00) and his/her entry price (in this example, $4.42); if Mitt Romney indeed is elected president.

Of course, if Mitt Romney should lose in November, the client would lose his/her initial investment of $4.42, as the "event" would not have happened and the market would settle at $0.00.

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